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Learning Curve Breakdown (work in progress) March 17th 2010 xlsx
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Learning Curve Breakdown (work in progress) March 17th 2010.xlsx (Size: 22.51 KB) (Files: 1)
Learning Curve Breakdown (work in progress) March 17th 2010.xlsx
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The spreadsheet is set up to model the price of photovoltaics over the next 10 years. It assumes a growth rate of 25% per year and an initial learning rate of 18% that steps down year by year to simulate the effect of learning saturation.
I added additional columns that crudely model the change in wafer thickness over the next 10 years. I linearly scaled today\'s wafer thickness ~ 180 um and today\'s kerf loss ~140 um to 100 um each in 2020 which I\'ve seen listed as a common 10 year goal. The polysilicon price trend is an educated guess based on FBR silicon production costs of around $20/kG.
The idea of the wafer and poly columns is to sketch out an additional cost projection that is independent of the learning curve\'s prediction. This allows a crude comparison of the two. So far the comparisons don\'t line up very well because my sketch of polysilicon\'s price future has a sharp drop in the near term due to the glut of poly on the market.
This is a work in progress. Suggestions and critiques are welcome.
